In recent weeks there has been polling which had got some folk pretty excited. But there’s always the question with one off polls; are they indicative of changes in mood or just outliers. Just as the Des Moines Register poll found Kamala Harris ahead of Trump by 3% in the solidly Republican state of Iowa just a few days before Trump won the state by 13%. And which has now resulted in a court case against the paper.
I’m relatively comfortable with the Times poll which gave the SNP a decent lead and put Independence at 54%. Comfortable because I think it reflects the regret of many who voted Labour in July, the disgust at the betrayals by the Labour Government and perhaps most of all the return to practical politics of the Scottish Government now well rid of the Greens and their ludicrous obsession with other people’s bedrooms and bathrooms. John Swinney has taken us back to the days when the Scottish Government was more boring but also more reflective of ordinary Scotland.
Believe in Scotland posed some different questions and will have done no harm at all in doing so.
Would voters be more likely to vote YES if the offer was to become a republic? The poll showed an increase in support to 59% (from the 54% in The Times). Both polls were carried out by the same company at the same time. I’m not too surprised by this but will not get too excited either. If these figures were replicated by other polling over a period of time then we might have cause for a serious conversation as Ballot Box noted. At the moment I’m still of the opinion that a post-independence referendum on the future of the monarchy is a better option but then I’m not bothered either way. If people want a republic I’m fine, if they want some form of monarchy I’m equally fine.
The poll question which I have real reservations about is on “wellbeing”.
The Believe in Scotland poll asked what they call the Wellbeing Economy Question which produced a huge 66% majority. And the Wellbeing Pension question which also produced 66%.
My concern is simply that I doubt if many people have any idea what the Wellbeing economy or pension means. I know that there was a description given in the question (click here to read it) but that’s like asking if they want, as the Americans would say “Mom’s apple pie and ice cream”, a million miles away from reality. Who’s going to say no to an increase in the pension from £169.20 to £241.50 a week? But there’s no explanation of how you get to that figure or when you get there. Once it has been subjected to serious debate on the pros and cons then I might take it more seriously.
Back in the day when I was writing training material for a living, we had to ensure that our objectives met the SMART test. That they were;
· Specific
· Measurable
· Achievable
· Realistic
· Timebound
I seriously doubt that if you were to ask your neighbours, workmates or family to give 3 advantages and 3 disadvantages of a wellbeing economy if many could do so.
There’s a real debate to be had about any future role of monarchy in Scotland just as there is about the economic model we choose but let’s not get too carried away with the results of just one poll. Remember the Des Moines Register.