Fasten your seatbelts

I’m writing this before the results are in and am faced with the difficult task of predicting the election and analysing what it means. 

One thing is certain it’s not going to be the best election for the SNP but it’s not going to be any kind of catastrophe either. The party is polling in the 30s and is forecast to win a minimum of 15 seats. Many constituencies are on a knife edge and a lot will depend on local campaigns and turnout. 

This is peak Labour after all, the highest their support is going to be. Scotland is always caught in the gravitational pull of English politics and it’s inevitable there will be some repercussions for us from the present popularity that Labour is enjoying in the south. The problem for Labour is that there is little enthusiasm for them or their leader. Starmer is not liked either here or in England. He will enter 10 Downing Street as the most disliked Prime Minister in polling history. With no clear plans and an unfavourable economic situation there is certain to be no honeymoon. The direction of travel is predictable. 

When Scottish Labour assert that they are going to ‘oust’ the SNP in the Holyrood elections in 2026 we can see the old arrogance that delivered such firm electoral rebukes for the party from 2007 onwards. Taking voters for granted 2 years before an election even happens gives an insight into Labour thinking. They’re imagining a return to the days of untrammelled power and winning elections forever. They don’t appear to have taken into account that the UK is unfixable in its present form or that modern politics is characterised by very high levels of volatility. 

Unionism is desperate for a return to the old dispensation where our job is to be grateful for what they imagine to be British largesse. We’re meant to be content with the second rate and know our place. I’ve got news for ‘Scottish’ Labour and their allies in the MSM. It’s never going to happen. The recent census figures on national identity show the vast majority of people living in Scotland completely reject the British identity to which Labour are thirled. Support for independence remains high and is likely to increase even further. 

In the meantime we are going to have to grit our teeth and get through this. Remember it’s temporary. Our cause is greater than one election result. The UK is on the cusp of a major political breakdown. In the long run we will be the main winners. Independence is closer than ever.