#IndyRef2 when Scotland is ready

I’ve been spending the last few weekends assessing members who want to become MSPs. A worthy ambition and not one that should be taken lightly. Through a range of individual interviews and group exercises, the Candidate Assessment Panel stretches applicants to help them evidence that they have what it takes to follow in the footsteps of the likes of Winnie Ewing, Tricia Marwick, Rob Gibson and Alasdair Morgan.

My fellow assessors like our version of Question Time. I role play a mash of Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer (yes, it’s not particularly pleasant sounding or looking). Taking a question from the ‘audience’ only to twist and turn it with a heavy dose of their usual anti-SNP venom, and throw it at these unsuspecting wannabe-standard-bearers.

Some members are very good. Maybe they see it coming and have worked hard on how to deflect, rebut or even answer the questions. Lately, one such question gave me ample opportunity to persecute with gay abandon. It runs roughly along theses lines: the question of a second referendum has been answered by our First Minister as being when the people of Scotland tell us that they want another one.

During the General Election, Nicola said “In order for another referendum to be in an SNP manifesto in future, something significant would have to change from the situation we had last year in the referendum.” That something significant has ranged from Scotland voting to stay in the EU and the rest of the UK opting to come out, to renewal of Trident, to failure to deliver on The Vow and its implied nothing short of a federal UK, and now English Votes for English Laws.

The bullets are all there but what exactly is the trigger that fires us into a second Independence Referendum? How do the people of Scotland express their desire for an #IndyRef2 that does not allow the UK Government to call into question its mandate?

Be in no doubt, if the mandate for a second referendum isn’t explicit, the UK will tie the Scottish Government in knots over the legitimacy of another ballot that may bring too much doubt for some Scots.

It is clear to me that many Scots in their heart want Scotland to be an independent country but their head says, “not now, it’s too risky”. That’s a valid view and one we all have to respect. We have much more to do to convince people who voted No that economically they will not only be ‘not any worse off’ but that they will be better off.

If England votes Yes to Brexit, it will make our economic arguments a lot easier. If Trident is renewed at billions upon billions of pounds, that will make a second Yes vote easier. If The Vow is not delivered though, the arguments get a bit easier provided what has failed to be delivered is clear and ordinary voters understand that. Nuances about the level of fiscal autonomy just don’t register with most folk.

Judging by how some of our parliamentary hopefuls view things, a commitment to a second referendum next year is a given. It’s getting the circumstances to call it that they can’t express well without making the SNP appear as though they are a party with an answer looking for a question.