{"id":2684,"date":"2020-01-23T17:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-01-23T17:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/?p=2684"},"modified":"2020-01-23T11:22:39","modified_gmt":"2020-01-23T11:22:39","slug":"political-divergence-in-numbers","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/?p=2684","title":{"rendered":"Political divergence in numbers"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

There have been numerous theories advanced in the month since December\u2019s general election to explain why Labour did quite so badly. Mostly they revolve around the idea that Jeremy Corbyn was unelectable as an individual, that he was viewed as sympathetic to terrorists, unpatriotic or that Labour\u2019s manifesto was simplyunbelievable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is however a far simpler explanation and I tend to the general principle that the simplest explanations are often closest to the truth.It has little to do with Corbyn, good or bad. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It has little to do with Labour\u2019s manifesto. It is simply this; England is simply becoming a more right-wing country! As the figures below show, there has been an increase in the Tory vote at each of the last 4 elections. They are the only party with that record and the period covers the rise and fall of UKIP\/Brexit Party, the \u201cphenomenon\u201d of the 2017 Corbyn campaign as well as Theresa May\u2019s disastrous campaign that year. The Tories have simply put on just over 4 million votes in 4 elections! <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\t\t\tElection<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\tParty<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\tVotes<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\tSeats<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t+\/-<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td><\/tr>
\n\t\t\t2010<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\tCon<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t9,908,169<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t306<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t+97<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td><\/tr>
\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\tLab<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t7,042,398<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t258<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t-91<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td><\/tr>
\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\tLibdem<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t6,076,189<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t 57<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t-5<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td><\/tr>
\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\tSNP<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t 491,386<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t 6<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td><\/tr>
\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td><\/tr>
\n\t\t\t2015<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\tCon<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t11,334,226<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t330<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t+24<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td><\/tr>
\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\tLab<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t 9,347,273<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t232<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t-26<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td><\/tr>
\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\tLibdem<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t 2,415,916<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t 8<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t-49<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td><\/tr>
\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\tSNP<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t 1,454,436<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t56<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t+50<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td><\/tr>
\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td><\/tr>
\n\t\t\t2017<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\tCon<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t13,636,684<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t317<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t-13<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td><\/tr>
\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\tLab<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t12,878,460<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t262\n\t\t\t<\/strong>\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t+30<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td><\/tr>
\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\tLibdem<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t 2,371,910<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t12<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t+4<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td><\/tr>
\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\tSNP<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t 977,569<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t35<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t-21<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td><\/tr>
\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td><\/tr>
\n\t\t\t2019<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\tCon<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t13,966,451<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t365<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t+48<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td><\/tr>
\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\tLab<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t10,265,912<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t202<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t-60<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td><\/tr>
\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\tLibdem<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t 3,696,419<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t11<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t-1<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td><\/tr>
\n\t\t\t
\n\n\t\t\t\n\t\t<\/td>		\n\t\t\tSNP<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t 1,242,380<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t48<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td>\n\t\t\t+13*<\/strong>\n\t\t<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

*inc\nNeale Hanvey as he was on the ballot paper as SNP<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nfigures show some surprising findings, for example, 2010 is\nremembered as the \u201cI agree with Nick\u201d election yet the LibDems\nactually lost 5 seats. The 2017 tory campaign, generally reckoned to\nbe one of if not the, worst in living memory saw them put on more\nthan 2 million votes despite losing 13 seats. Labour would need to\nwin 124 seats just to have a majority at all. I reckon there\u2019s more\nchance of bacon butties flying around than that happening at the next\nelection!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What\nthese figures do show is not only the scale of the task facing Labour\nin trying to win a majority, but also the extent to which England and\nScotland are diverging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last year the tories managed to perform better than many commentators had predicted, yet still they lost both votes and seats. The opposite of what was happening in England. Labour polled disastrously and barely scraped half a million votes, compare that to 2010, that\u2019s half their voters who have given up on them. The LibDems are generally a minor sideshow losing almost half of their 2010 vote. I confess to being utterly baffled why the Party of Jo Grimond and Russell Johnston continues to betray their Home Rule heritage and seek political irrelevance driven by Willie Rennie\u2019s hatred of the very idea which was their hallmark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Both the Tories and Libdems have become fringe parties in most of Scotland in total votes and seats but have geographically significant presence in both the North and South of Scotland. And that includes the fact that many unionists held their noses and voted for any party which could defeat the SNP. It\u2019s perhaps significant that the areas where they have prospered most, or at perhaps suffered least, are those which are often geographically remote. The north and south have not only a greater reliance on the fishing and agriculture industries but are more suspicious of the power of the Central Belt. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As we prepare for the next Scottish elections and indyref2 being seen to be paying a bit more attention to these areas and their specific needs could pay dividends. Especially when they are sold out to safeguard London\u2019s financial markets.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There have been numerous theories advanced in the month since December\u2019s general election to explain why Labour did quite so badly. Mostly they revolve around the idea that Jeremy Corbyn was unelectable as an individual, that he was viewed as sympathetic to terrorists, unpatriotic or that Labour\u2019s manifesto was simplyunbelievable. There is however a far simpler explanation and I tend to the general principle that the simplest explanations are often closest to the truth.It has little to do with Corbyn, good or bad. It has little to do with Labour\u2019s manifesto. It is simply this; England is simply becoming a more right-wing country! As theRead More →<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[132],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2684"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2684"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2684\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2689,"href":"https:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2684\/revisions\/2689"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2684"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2684"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2684"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}