Well the dust is settling on the European elections and\nafter effect for all parties is rippling through them. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The new no-members, no-policies Brexit Party has failed to\ntake a parliamentary by-election in a seat they romped home at European level,\nwhich suggests voters are clear that Farage is great for a protest vote but no\none wants him or his party in Westminster. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Labour\u2019s humbling in Scotland to an all-time low in share of\nthe vote has at least forced out arch-Brexiteer\/Unionist Neil Findlay, and made\nhis boss do a U-turn to support a second EU referendum and to Remain. A long\nrealisation that Labour is getting nowhere aping the Conservative AND\nUnionists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Tories witnessed a vote collapse (or switch) but\nreceived the consolation of holding onto enough votes to keep their seat, such\nare the vagaries of the d\u2019Hondt seat allocation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Lib Dems are cock-a-hoop at getting back into Europe in\nScotland, scooping up the non-independence Remain vote, particularly attracting\nnon-independence Labour voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Before the Scottish Independence referendum, the Greens\ncould have relied on attracting Remain voters in Labour to give them a tactical\nlift but they found themselves squeezed by SNP holding on to\nindependence-supporting former Labour supporters and anti-independence Labour\nvotes going to the Lib Dems. If only Labour had gone all pro-Remain three\nmonths ago: then the split between Labour, Lib Dems and Greens might have been\neven closer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What SNP vote evidenced is that its increased share gained a\nseat. Unlike in 2016 Scottish elections, staying SNP in a PR election delivers\nresults. However, a future 2021 Scottish election is a different kettle of fish.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So, making sense of it all, there are clear divisions in the\nelectorate around binary issues: Scottish Independence and membership of the\nEuropean Union.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Remain votes held at roughly 61-37, and Scottish\nIndependence support at 46-50. Now there are huge caveats, but it is a\nrelatively good indicative display of how Scottish people think. Once Brexit is\nactually delivered, then we can expect a bigger shift to align pro-Remain and\npro-Independence support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Clearly this suggests that there is roughly 10-15% of the\nelectorate who voted No to Scottish independence in 2014 but are ready to vote\nYes if Brexit Britain delivers for English nationalism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
But should we just sit back, take the temporary pain of\nBrexit in order to move on to our ultimate goal? Heck no! We need to identify\nand talk to that 10-15% soft support for Independence and warm them up more.\nLet\u2019s find out now, in relative peace time, what are the issues that trigger\nthem to say Yes or make them hesitant and remain as No voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Now that the Referendum Bill has been published by the\nScottish Government, Parliament will be reigniting debate about the detail of\nthe \u2018how, when and who\u2019 of electoral administration for any plebiscite in\nScotland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has signalled that the\nReferendum Bill could face its first test as early as 2020 with the second\nScottish Referendum. Whether this is a\nconsultative referendum or a binding vote with Section 30 approval of the\nWestminster government remains to be seen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Any consultative referendum has to bring a majority of\nvoters out to vote for independence if independence is to have a credible start\nand refute the need for any confirmatory vote. A Section 30 Order is unlikely\nto be granted by any UK Government before 2021, and in so doing Boris and Ruth\nframe the next Scottish Parliament elections about the right to\nself-determination.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Whichever route is most successful, there is still work to\ndo: ensuring the proposition for independence is more convincing than 2014;\nattracting support of at least 60% to ground the decision as the clear \u2018will of\nthe people\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Research by this year\u2019s Oliver Brown Award recipient,\nProfessor James Mitchell and colleagues, provides the evidence that the SNP\nmembership is squarely behind their leadership line that the referendum can\nonly be held when the circumstances are in place to lead to a likely win.\nVoices from outwith the SNP need to appreciate this better. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Well the dust is settling on the European elections and after effect for all parties is rippling through them. The new no-members, no-policies Brexit Party has failed to take a parliamentary by-election in a seat they romped home at European level, which suggests voters are clear that Farage is great for a protest vote but no one wants him or his party in Westminster. Labour\u2019s humbling in Scotland to an all-time low in share of the vote has at least forced out arch-Brexiteer\/Unionist Neil Findlay, and made his boss do a U-turn to support a second EU referendum and to Remain. A long realisation thatRead More →<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2521"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2521"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2521\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2522,"href":"https:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2521\/revisions\/2522"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2521"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2521"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/scotsindependent.scot\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2521"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}